Thursday, February 01, 2007

How to integrate strategies?

One of my ongoing goals has been to figure out how to better analyze businesses in order to make better decisions regarding buying stocks. One method was to let the Motley Fool do it for me (initially with Hidden Gems, but now I'm considering additional services of theirs). Another strategy was to try to use my understanding of biotech to pick good stocks (what I call my One Up portfolio). My thinking about biotech stocks has actually developed quite a bit, so I think that the strategy has been informative if not profitable. The third was to combine complementary strategies that each have been shown to statistically beat the market. This is primarily based on MFI, combined with insider buying, low analyst coverage and, later, with Piotroski. This has worked to a reasonable extent - my IRR is pretty good, although the time slice is too short to say anything meaningful.

Now that I'm learning about how to gain a deeper understanding of businesses, how do I integrate these statistical strategies with more subjective ones? How to I rank a moat? How much weight do I put on - for example - debt level versus improving margins versus experienced management versus owner's earnings? I suppose that this is where the science blends into art. Any advice would be appreciated.

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