Tuesday, August 29, 2006

Update

As the time for picking new stocks approaches, I thought it was time to update my picks to date.
I am very impressed with the MFI portfolio. VPHM announced phase Ib results yesterday that were positive, and the market put it up over a buck in after hours trading. For me what this really means is that the company knows that it needs products to take over from vancocin, and this means that they're on their way. A pipeline can't hurt, that's for sure. TRLG announced that they're opening stores in Palm Beach, I think NYC, and now Latin America. There are rumors that they're shopping themselves out to be bought out. It seems that this is common for MFI stocks: there've been a couple, and IVII (not IIVI from my HG portfolio) just announced that they were being bought out at a 30% premium yesterday. DECK announced great earnings, and that shot them upwards. It's not as clear what's going wrong with the two that are down.
My biotech portfolio has had some ups and downs. I'm looking forward to CBST turning profitable, possibly as soon as next quarter. MEDX is finally up, but it is basically on no news. Same for NOVC being down. I guess I suspected that NOVC was being driven by speculation and also by the institutional investors, which have now bought up 12.7% of the outstanding shares. I had thought that buying when I did was low enough, but maybe one or more mutual funds had to sell off as the price dropped. Who knows? I still think that the companies I have are great for long-term plays, but none are going to really quickly go up by some huge amount. I've invested more in this portfolio than I'd originally intended (a little too much enthusiasm, that I recognize as a beginner's mistake) so I may sell off some of this portfolio in an effort to balance the three portfolios.
My HG portfolio is doing well. Only about a month, and it's up almost 5%. I can't really explain any of this, though. Nothing seemed to have happened for SDA to have dropped, or for IIVI to have gone up (apparently I bought it at the bottom of an upward run). ALDN went up 8% around the end of the conflict in Lebannon (it's an Israeli company). CTRP went up, down and is now up again. Funny, I would have thought that it would have been the fastest riser, but of course this is way too short to say anything meaningful about that.
As I begin to look at MFI picks, I discovered something funny. As I've learned more about what to look for, I am finding fewer and fewer stocks immediately appealing. I'm not sure that I'm looking at exactly what is important, but I'm way too type-A to just pick randomly (like MFI says you're supposed to).

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